Reviewing the Women's Olympic Football Tournament
Debutants, grudge matches, and good games galore
Intro
The Women’s Olympic Football Tournament was officially drawn early on Wednesday morning. The 12-team tournament (marking the 4th tournament with a 12-team field) kicks off on July 21st. The draw played as so:
Group E
Japan (5th tournament)
Canada (4th tournament)
Great Britain (2nd tournament)
Chile (1st tournament)
Group F
China PR (6th tournament)
Brazil (7th tournament)
Zambia (1st tournament)
Netherlands (1st tournament)
Group G
Sweden (7th tournament)
USA (7th tournament)
Australia (4th tournament)
New Zealand (4th tournament)
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So let’s break down these groups and highlight both teams and matches to watch.
Group E
Hosts Japan will be one of the teams to beat in this group. The team that takes the field in Sapporo and Rifu is likely to be a little older than the side that recently dominated Paraguay and Panama. However, the hosts do have a range of young talent and seasoned veterans at their disposal.
Canada will also be a major threat in the group. The tournament may be one of the last for living legend Christine Sinclair (who will surpass 300 international caps if she plays in all three group games). But they have a lot of young talent that already has plenty of international experience - PSG forward Jordyn Huitema is only 19 and already has 35 caps. And, as an added bonus, Canada come off wins against Wales and England (which will make up the majority of the GB squad).
A lot of questions about Team GB remain - the English contingent of the team has been devastated by the mismanagement of the Phil Neville era. The power-sharing agreement that has led to the formation of the team will play a large part in the makeup of the team, and the quality of the team. The team made the quarterfinals in 2012, but massive questions remain.
Chile is the dangerous underdog of this group. They made a lot of noise at the 2019 World Cup in France, they have an experienced team, and of course - they have goalkeeper Christine Endler.
Match to Watch: Japan v Canada
I think the marquee match of this game is going to be the likely battle for first place between these emerging teams. Neither is quite at the top echelon of the women’s soccer but both are knocking at the door. This is going to be a really fun match and is likely to have control of the group on the line.
Team to Watch: Chile
I think Chile can make some noise in their first Olympic appearance. I don’t feel that many of the South American sides out of teams such as Brazil and maybe Argentina get the credit they deserve. I wouldn’t go as far as to say that Chile is going to upset and make it through to the knockout round but I can definitely see them turning up the heat for the likes of Japan and Canada.
Group Prediction
Canada
Japan
Chile
Great Britain
Group F
The Netherlands will definitely be the biggest threat in this group. After making a run to the World Cup final in 2019, they have lost just two matches since the start of 2020. They of course possess one of the best strikers in women’s football, Vivianne Miedema. At just 24, Miedema is already her nation’s all-time top goalscorer, and is frankly a threat anytime she is vaguely near the ball.
It will be interesting to see the team that Brazil sends to the Olympics. As most in the WoSo world know, Brazil has one of the worst records when it comes to supporting women’s football and have relied for many years on a core group of players now in their mid-30s. While they are led by experienced coach Pia Sundhage, the former USWNT head coach is yet to lead them in a major tournament. That said, their 2 wins, 1 loss performance at this year’s SheBelieves Cup was promising.
China are a long way from their highs in the upper ranks of women’s football. Needing extra time to qualify for the tournament over South Korea, China will need to pull out all the stops to compete with the likes of the Netherlands and Brazil.
Zambia, welcome to the Olympics. The 96th ranked team in the world are here after winning the CAF tournament last year against Cameroon. They have a handful of players who play outside Zambia, including Hellen Mubanga, who plays for Zaragoza in the second division of Spanish women’s football. I bring up Mubanga as it was her 42nd minute goal that sealed Zambia’s ticket to the Olympics. At the very least, it’s great experience for the players.
Match to Watch: Netherlands v Brazil
This match-up sees some of the best talent in the world face off against one another. There is very little crossover between the two teams, with players only likely to one another in the occasional Spanish top-flight match, or Women’s Champions League match. This is the sort of match we live for in international competition.
Team to Watch: Netherlands
The easy pick. They showed us what they could do in France in 2019. Now they will be eager to take things even further and collect an Olympic medal on their first attempt.
Group Prediction
Netherlands
Brazil
China PR
Zambia
Group G
It’s easy to gravitate towards Team USA here. The range of talent, the pedigree. A lot of seasoned veterans with some generational talent breaking through in the likes of Sophia Smith and Catarina Macario. The only major holdup for the US is going to be that age factor, with a lot of their big name starters in their early to mid 30s (or 38, in the case of Carli Lloyd). Given what happened last time they went to the Olympics, which we will get into momentarily, the Games are not a sure thing for the US.
Sweden is another dangerous team with a lot of seasoned veterans. The silver medallists from Rio are one of the biggest European threats in the tournament and won’t make life easy for their opponents. Plus, they have a long recent history with the US.
The big headline player for the Australian team is Sam Kerr, the once-in-a-generation striker. However, one player a team does not make. Australia are one of the powerhouses of AFC play, along with the likes of Japan, South Korea, and China. However, they have often struggled on the international stage. They left the 2019 World Cup in the Round of 16, and their last two friendlies, which played largely full strength squads, saw them lost 5-2 to Germany, and 5-0 to the Netherlands.
New Zealand is another team that fairly heavily relies on veterans, though they do have a new crop of younger players starting to appear in international matches. Not to be too cruel but they are the obligatory Oceanic representative, given that they are far and away the best team in that region. They qualified for the Olympics back in 2018, as winners of the OFC Women’s Nations Cup. In that tournament, they played 5 matches, won 5, and outscored their opponents 53-0.
Match to Watch: USA v Sweden
Okay. The match we are all here for. Back in 2016, these teams met in the Rio Olympic Tournament. Sweden angered many, many, US fans by playing the ultimate, park-the-bus defensive and possession-based football. This eventually led to a Swedish victory on penalties. They met again in the 2019 World Cup, where the US took a 2-0 group stage victory. And finally, most recently, the Swedes ended a 16-game winning streak for the Americans in a 1-1 friendly draw (that honestly, the Swedes should have won and that America had to rely on a late, controversial penalty to earn the draw). It’s a major grudge match, and a real test for both sides.
Team(s) to Watch: Sweden/Australia
I think Sweden are just too dangerous to ignore here. They’ve shown what they can do in the past 5 years and we know from 2016 what they can do specifically at this tournament.
Australia is worth keeping an eye, if only to watch Sam Kerr play. If they can muster strong play around her, they could be dangerous but they are definitely on the outside looking in.
Group Prediction
USA
Sweden
Australia
New Zealand
Knockouts and beyond
This is what my predicted knockouts would look like:
Quarterfinals
Canada v Australia, USA v China, Netherlands v Sweden, Japan v Brazil
Semifinals
Canada v USA, Netherlands v Brazil
Gold Medal Match
USA v Netherlands
Yeah, I think that given how the groups have been drawn, and as along as there are no major upsets, I think we could be in for a 2019 World Cup Final rematch. With Germany and France both absent, the USA and the Netherlands are the top best teams in the world and due to the Olympic rules for women’s soccer, they are able to play their strongest teams.
Honestly, I think it would be a great match, to see the two sides face off again.